Monthly Archives: August 2010

Global Equity Markets Review

The S&P 500 See the full gallery on Posterous The most important equity index on the globe, the S&P 500, is roughly -13% from its cycle peak, and up +5.5% from its intermediate bottom. Expectations for equities inside the S&P … Continue reading

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Data Review

The amount of commercial paper outstanding has rebounded very strongly as of the beginning of 2010, with non-financial leading the way.  The rebound very much is playing a similar timeline to the recovery in 2003-2004.  The financial commercial paper has … Continue reading

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My Grandfather’s Paintings

A heart attack robbed me of knowing my grandfather (mother’s side) well.  He was a renaissance man:  as well being a mechanic in the RAF during WWII, he was an excellent musician (choral singer, pianist & organist), and a painter. Despite … Continue reading

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Banks loosening credit, loan demand returning

One of the principal themes I’ve discussed is the “lending gap”: how width of the gap regulates consumer spending.  It’s been my contention that the order in which economic indicators have recovered is not unlike other post-war recessions: commodity & … Continue reading

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Risks & Rewards: 2nd half 2010

We are currently in the middle of a truncated economic cycle.  All of the major economic indicators are commensurate to this, with all of the leading & lagging indicators falling into place in the correct order:  commodities, equities, manufacturing, inventory rebulding, payrolls, … Continue reading

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Recovery Grinds On

Unemployment Data Initial Claims The most watched data point today was the Initial Unemployment Claims, which edged up 2k to 484k, disappointing the consensus number of 465k.  This is really a rounding error:  the data series is very messy, though … Continue reading

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A few charts which represent real green shoots

Over the past month, I’ve enjoyed a verbal sparring with my peers over my bullish stance.  I began to consider the bull case at the beginning of the month after reviewing employment related data, and finding myself surprised at the … Continue reading

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Breaking down ISM Numbers

See the full gallery on Posterous ISM blew expectations out of the water.  I think even relatively bullish observers — myself included — were surprised at the strength, especially relative to expectations.  Goldman Sachs made the call for the report … Continue reading

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