Monthly Archives: August 2010

The S&P 500 See the full gallery on Posterous The most important equity index on the globe, the S&P 500, is roughly -13% from its cycle peak, and up +5.5% from its intermediate bottom. Expectations for equities inside the S&P … Continue reading →

The amount of commercial paper outstanding has rebounded very strongly as of the beginning of 2010, with non-financial leading the way.  The rebound very much is playing a similar timeline to the recovery in 2003-2004.  The financial commercial paper has … Continue reading →

A heart attack robbed me of knowing my grandfather (mother’s side) well.  He was a renaissance man:  as well being a mechanic in the RAF during WWII, he was an excellent musician (choral singer, pianist & organist), and a painter. Despite … Continue reading →

One of the principal themes I’ve discussed is the “lending gap”: how width of the gap regulates consumer spending.  It’s been my contention that the order in which economic indicators have recovered is not unlike other post-war recessions: commodity & … Continue reading →

We are currently in the middle of a truncated economic cycle.  All of the major economic indicators are commensurate to this, with all of the leading & lagging indicators falling into place in the correct order:  commodities, equities, manufacturing, inventory rebulding, payrolls, … Continue reading →

Unemployment Data Initial Claims The most watched data point today was the Initial Unemployment Claims, which edged up 2k to 484k, disappointing the consensus number of 465k.  This is really a rounding error:  the data series is very messy, though … Continue reading →

Over the past month, I’ve enjoyed a verbal sparring with my peers over my bullish stance.  I began to consider the bull case at the beginning of the month after reviewing employment related data, and finding myself surprised at the … Continue reading →

See the full gallery on Posterous ISM blew expectations out of the water.  I think even relatively bullish observers — myself included — were surprised at the strength, especially relative to expectations.  Goldman Sachs made the call for the report … Continue reading →