Monthly Archives: February 2011

Floating Between the Value Goalposts

I don’t usually like to talk about trading (everyone else does that), but I thought I’d chime in on how I view our current levels. As I wrote in my January 2nd piece outlining my 2011 playbook, my estimate for … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Fun with the Big Mac Index

Forex’s best broker, Oanda, puts real-time data in place over top The Economist’s Big Mac Index. Purchasing Power Parity theory has good predictive power, and we use it as a component of our successful currency forecast models.  The business of … Continue reading

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Business Inventories: It Ain’t Over Yet

Mish Shedlock wasn’t the first or last to attempt to call the top in Business Inventories back in October, but his reasoning was particularly curious: a -0.2% m/m decline in productivity.  He’s presently wrong by $31.87B and four months. The … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: The Fight Against Credit Contraction

See the full gallery on Posterous Much has been said about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, “money printing,” and commodity inflation. The simple fact remains, however, that all of these billions of dollars haven’t even been able to replace … Continue reading

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Recapitulation: Data in Review

Commercial Paper is making a play higher, up $97B since January 19th.  This is a very big gain: annualised, that would be a gain of $1.67T (more than the value of all Commercial Paper presently outstanding). Financial Commercial Paper lead the … Continue reading

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Consumer Credit on Deck

Today’s biggest economic release, Consumer Credit, is forecasted by analyst consensus to gain m/m for first time since June 2010, and only the second time since 2008.  Analysts were clearly not reading Macrofugue, as we forecasted that in late October, … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Behavior of Wages at Tops and Bottoms

The behavior: (note that in these charts, the red line is y/y % wage growth, and the blue line is the inverted unemployment rate) Perhaps a year before the Unemployment Rate rises, Wage Growth falls abruptly.  This seems to be … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Some Curious Divergences

A number of divergences are showing up in US data which may bode well for both equities and employment. Take New Orders from today’s ISM Manufacturing report:  in the past decade, a large jump has preceded significant equity appreciation.  It … Continue reading

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Income, Energy & The Cost of Unemployment

Economic data continues to steadily improve.  Domestic demand for gasoline, diesel and automobiles provides a picture of coincident data follow-through. See the full gallery on Posterous We’re seeing the same splintering in recovery as everyone else, of course: this is … Continue reading

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