Monthly Archives: May 2011

PEAK DEFICIT? Engineering the Public-Private Hand-off

Assuming that government revenue does not collapse, it is not a stretch to say that there is no political appetite for either maintaining or growing the Federal deficit.  The assumption is that change in Net Government Spending will be no … Continue reading

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Trade, Spending & Valuing the US Dollar

The strongest factors that we’ve found that explain movement of the US dollar are the Balance of Payments and Net Government Saving.  Combined in a simple linear model, they have an R^2 of better than 0.8 — meaning that 80% … Continue reading

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Data In Review (try 2)

Apparently emailing the PPT file didn’t work like it was supposed to.  Let’s try it another way. The following are my slides for my upcoming (pre-recorded) Stocktwits.tv Macro Contrarians appearance.

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What’s actually in deflation?

There is a tremendous fixation on the inflationary components of CPI.  The most obvious driver of headline CPI is gasoline, as per the fantastic Monetary Trends piece.  Without it, even the rate of headline inflation keeps dropping, and the largest … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Present Claims Rate Implies 6.5% Unemployment Rate

I am a fan of this chart, and have used it (or recreated it from FRED) from the Dallas Fed.  A theme here has been the disconnect between unemployment insurance claims and the unemployment rate.  The median duration of unemployment peaked … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Jobs Picture Improves Yet Again

Let’s make sure we start at the same place.  We’ve gained 1,700,000 new payrolls since January 2010, and 1,310,00 in the last year. People still aren’t happy.  And they shouldn’t be.  There are still a tonne of jobs left to … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: TIPS 10y Annual Inflation Expectations Top 6%

While perusing data this afternoon, we created this fun little chart: There certainly isn’t much of an edge in the TIPS market if you want to bet on inflation.  Either CPI is headed north of 6%, or TIPS buyers are … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Your Crack Is Spread Wide

As we’re all being shafted by this object: …we visit the reasons why: The 3-2-1 crack spread — the most popular crack spread measuring the approximate ratio between the 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of heating oil per … Continue reading

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Intermezzo: Top 4 Reasons Your Volume Conspiracy Theory Is Old And Busted

All things being equal (same number of dollars, same number of shares), higher prices mean less volume. Share supply has declined through buybacks and M&A.   Conversely, IPOs and secondary offerings are far less a factor in the index stocks since … Continue reading

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