Monthly Archives: September 2011

Squaring your delta: URI-200 breaks negative

URI (Ultimate Risk Index) is an indicator Brent & I developed to determine when the tide had turned against the risk-seeking trade. It is calculated by summing the number of markets (we look at 23 global indices) which are within … Continue reading

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Disparate Thoughts & Charts From The Past Week

Ben Bernanke: Not An Idiot After All? When Ben Bernanke made the comment that he felt the headline inflation was transitory, I do not recall a single blogger, pundit or tweeter who agreed.  In fact, I am having a difficult … Continue reading

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More on capital consumption

A week ago, we highlighted that the fraction of investment that capital consumption comprises is a great explainer of the unemployment rate.  It’s easy to see with this chart: What’s remarkable is how this relationship has held up over the … Continue reading

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Retail Sales: Real-time View Into Marginal Propensity To Consume

Perhaps our second favourite real-time read on the economy (second to Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance) is Real Retail Sales. Spurred on by Joe Weisenthal’s article on the retail sales, we augmented our usual view into retail sales by creating … Continue reading

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Investment: Driving the Business Cycle

It is supposed, particularly by supply-side economists, that investment drives the business cycle.  While I suggest fixating on any one component will lead to a myopic and sometimes misguided conclusion, it is very difficult to deny that employment is created … Continue reading

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Comparing 2010 with 2011

As noted Twitter finance community member Morgan_03 opined in the dwindling hours of 2010, 2011 could look a great deal like its younger brother.  This has turned out to bear some truth.  Let’s take a look at the performance of … Continue reading

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