Monthly Archives: December 2011

Core Durable Goods

There’s nothing ambiguous about this – core durable goods growth is strong: The average year-over-year %-growth is 3.75%.  The present rate is 6.53%. There are 18 instances since 1993 that growth has been between 5 and 7%. In only 3 … Continue reading

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Marginal Propensities

The marginal propensity to save, invest, or consume drive the direction of the economy. We can very clearly see the relationship between saving and investing here: It is very visible that these two series are inexorably linked, and share two … Continue reading

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4 charts that explain what 366k Initial Claims mean

Let’s start with the inverted claims/S&P 500 chart: On top of dispelling the notion that equities aren’t priced based on fundamentals, this simple chart has provided a very effective fair value metric for four years running.  And it’s implying higher. … Continue reading

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Negative Real Rates and Fulfilling .COM Promises

Consider Real Rates, as defined by the trailing-12 month inflation subtracted from the 10-year yield: Real rates out to 10 years are as low as they have been since the 1970s.  To wit, here is the kernel density graph of … Continue reading

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