Core Durable Goods

There’s nothing ambiguous about this – core durable goods growth is strong:


The average year-over-year %-growth is 3.75%.  The present rate is 6.53%.

There are 18 instances since 1993 that growth has been between 5 and 7%.

In only 3 occasions (16.7%) were there negative equity returns 1-year forward: July 1993, March 2000 and May 2000 for a mean of -8.03%.

The balance of instances (83%) saw 1-year forward returns average +14.47%.

If this series closes in on flat year-over-year, it will probably be time to get worried.  Presently, however, the odds and implications appear favourable.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Core Durable Goods

  1. jeff sciscilo says:

    Matt, the yoy in core capex is now slightly negative (through June). Are you starting to get a bit concerned or are there other positive forces at work that may be able to neutralize this? I haven’t run the numbers, but it doesn’t appear that the 1yr forward market performance has been too promising in past instances and in fact maybe implies a pretty serious correction lies ahead?

Leave a Reply