Intermezzo: Jobs Picture Improves Yet Again

Let’s make sure we start at the same place.  We’ve gained 1,700,000 new payrolls since January 2010, and 1,310,00 in the last year.


People still aren’t happy.  And they shouldn’t be.  There are still a tonne of jobs left to be created before we find full employment.

Conversely, the job creation machine story hasn’t been told.  The good thing is that rate of improvement is increasing.  Take today’s Layoffs & Discharges contrasted against Initial Claims:


Layoffs lead Initial Claims in all parts of the cycle.  This makes sense.  Laid-off employees get absorbed into the work-force near the end of a cycle before it gets saturated.  The good news: we’re at the lowest level since the series began in 2000.

Coupled with the likelyhood of lower pump prices for the next quarter, we’re liable to see consumer spending start to really lift off.

Finally, perhaps some political fodder:


Take a look at the rate of quits for public vs private employees.  It’s not even close.  Are government jobs that much better?  What am I missing out on?  😉



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